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Complex systems have many faces

Modeling complex systems appears to me in striking contrast with the image of physics that emerges from famous stories and anecdotes about scientific struggle: poor Galileo pacing up and down the Tower of Pisa, Newton’s revelation “beaten” into his head by an apple, desperate or uncanny hypotheses introduced by Planck, Bohr, and Einstein just to make progress. These examples give the impression, that the hardest part of the problem is to find even a single model describing the experimental observations. Today, when it comes to complex systems, suddenly there is a multitude of mathematical models for the same problem... Does it matter which one we choose?

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Perhaps everyone knows that there are often (if not always) many paths to the same solution of a given mathematical problem. However, as one of my mentors (Stanislav K. Filatov) taught me: having many unrelated theories for the same thing is almost the same as having none 🙂. He also once remarked, in a lecture on the differences between Bragg’s and Laue’s derivations of X-ray diffraction in crystals, that sometimes even a “wrong” mathematical model leads to the right answer 😅. Indeed, the logical law of implication (FalseTrue)=True(\mathrm{False} \Rightarrow \mathrm{True}) = \mathrm{True} is often a blessing for theoreticians 😁!

Of course, the choice between models is obvious in some situations (for many possible reasons), yet quite often they compete, especially now, with the “advent” of machine learning. Should we simply search for the best scheme of a neural network and train it to solve all our problems 🙂? And why then do we still bother to interpret what neural networks actually learn?

Just imagine, perhaps in a moment of madness 😅, that you trained a neural network on astronomical data and it learned the geocentric model of planetary motion (on the cover). To predict what happens in the sky, this model would most likely suffice—it can be mathematically precise down to a nuance. Sailors, after all, managed to navigate the seas long before anyone realized that most celestial bodies were not moving around Earth.

Today, we can even accurately describe how the motion of planets appears to an observer on Earth. Mathematics allows us to switch easily between points of view, sometimes exposing how different formulas are related. Sitting on a train, for example, we can describe the trees as “flying” past us in a co-moving reference frame. Yet an accurate formula alone does not always reveal what is cause and what is effect.

Likewise, the same formula can be approximated by many different series expansions. Neural networks typically swim in such a soup of redundant mathematical representations, from which they need only pick one. Sometimes, depending on how we train them, they pick a different one each time.

Returning to our “mad” example, suppose we could “read” the neural-networkian and understand how the network uses the geocentric model it had learned to compute the positions of the planets. Would the path toward the law of gravity—the law Newton used to explain the motion of celestial bodies in the solar system—then become obvious?

Cover image is generated with ChatGPT; prompt and selection by RB.